One of the most anticipated US Presidential Elections is winding down to its last 50 days of campaigning and everyone seems to be keeping a sharp eye on the ups, downs, and shifts in voter polls. The news networks are busy looking at national poll results that are often too close to call with 48% for one candidate and 51% for another and a standard deviation of plus or minus 5%, which basically means they don't know who is going to win in November.
The truth is the Presidential elections is more like 51 regional elections than it is a single election. Although national polls might give an idea in which direction the country is leaning , it is the state-by-state electoral votes that really determine the winner -- and this one is going to be close.
In my opinion one of the best sites that predicts State Electoral votes is www.electoral-vote.com. This site compiles various statewide polls and combines them to come up with probably the closest projection available. Of course the best source for the election results is the actual Nov 4, 2008 results on election day, but this site has been pretty accurate in determining the 2004 elections. Among other things, the site also gives 2004 vs. 2008 state-by-state comparisons to show where the parties might have either gained or lost a state versus the previous election. Other neat features include graphs showing week by week percentage point trends for the two major candidates, links to other political sites associated with the election process and an intrade site that gives an election projection based on how the market is betting on a state by state basis.
Keep up with the elections at electoral-vote.com and enjoy,
-- Jonah
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